Both divers and boat operators can get caught in a catch 22 position here. Divers don't want to book because the operator does not have the minimum numbers to confirm the trips. Operators don't want to guarantee the trips without the minimum number of divers.
For the travelling diver, the best advise is don't book in advance. Wait until nearer the time to access the situation regarding the availability. There will be several boats operating at the ends of the season so there will be plenty of trips to choose from. Wait for the offers to appear. No one wants to pay full price only to find out that others on the boat paid 20% less, or to have the trip cancelled at the last minute.
Waiting before booking also gives you the chance to access the weather. Generally, on the cusps of the high and low seasons, you will still have a great trip with great diving. Unless you are very unlucky the weather will be mostly sunny with the occasional tropical shower.
The Similans often has 30m+ visibility, whalesharks and manta rays can seen at any time of year (usually further north at Richelieu Rock and Koh Bon/Koh Tachai). Fewer boats at these times mean fewer divers in the water and often more marine life is seen.
Phuket is also a nice island to be on in low season, it does not feel like it's in low season, all shops, restaurants and bars stay open. (Khao Lak on the other hand pretty well shuts up shop and staying there in low season could be pretty lonely).
You may get some showers and the sea might not be flat but normally this isn't an issue on the liveaboards as there is plenty of shelter from the waves at the Similan islands and even if you get a few tropical downpours you will still have sunshine most of the time. That said there is a risk involved. If you had booked a liveaboard in the last week of October this year (2007) you would have had a very rainy trip and some pretty big waves too. Some trips were cancelled because of the weather. So the best advice again is to wait and see.
There is not much to lose by waiting to make your booking but plenty to gain.
The advise for the high season is different. For trips from February to mid April and all holidays like Christmas, New Year and Chinese New Year, book in advance for all but the cheapest boats to be sure of getting a place. It is important to get your Phuket hotels and flights booked up as well as these can be more expensive to book last minute.
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